Policy analyst: COVID-19 deaths by ethnicity 'more nuanced' than wider narrative

Raw data on COVID-19 deaths by ethnicity in Texas and across the U.S. reveals a "very different" and more nuanced picture than the narrative that minority communities are disproportionately affected by the virus, according to one public policy analyst.

The latest figures reveal that in Texas, Hispanics died in numbers greater than their proportion of the population, but that is not the case nationwide, according to Bill King, a former Houston mayoral candidate.

"There are many ways in which to compare COVID-19 outcomes between various demographics but the ultimate measure is by the number of fatalities suffered by each group," King told the Houston Daily. "The actual raw data paint a very different, more nuanced and, potentially, more revealing picture about the nature of COVID than the agenda-driven spin currently prevalent in the media and among many academics."

Lower death counts were recorded among Asian Americans and African Americans compared to their proportion of the Texas population, according to the latest figures from the Department of State Health Services (DSHS).

While updated figures are not available for COVID-related deaths in Houston and Harris County, the number of cases that are tracked weekly largely correlate with the ethnic breakdown of the area.

Across Texas, as of July 9, 51,313 COVID-related deaths had been recorded since the start of pandemic, including 23,822 Hispanic, 20,851 white, 5,244 black and 1,092 Asian.

In percentage terms, more than 46% of all fatalities were among Hispanics, 7% more than the nearly 40% of the total population. The percentage of blacks and Asians was smaller than the population breakdown.

Nationwide, of the approximately 600,000 deaths since the pandemic started, 15.1% were black, 2.6% more than the percentage of the total population. Among all other groups, the percentage is lower than the proportion of the total population.

"My guess is that the reason Hispanic numbers are higher in Texas has to do with the bad outbreaks that occurred along the border," King said. "Another factor could be that we have such a high uninsured rate in Texas that is mostly in the Latino community. But, again, I have not done any research to see if the uninsured rate among Latinos in Texas is higher than the uninsured rate among Latinos is other states." 

King's position, outlined in his analysis of the figures, is there has been "a persistent media narrative that COVID has disproportionately affected ethnic minorities."

He cited a recent Houston Chronicle op-ed that ran under the headline of “We must learn from the historic decimation of Hispanic communities.”

The article reported an analysis by Stanford Medical School’s Dr. Jorge Caballero that argues 60% of the deaths among non-Hispanic whites in Texas were over the age of 75, yet deaths in the Hispanic community were more common in younger people.

Approximately 60% of deaths among Hispanics occurred in those younger than 75, including roughly 8,500 men and women between the ages of 35 to 64, according to the research.

King, however, draws attention to the way the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports numbers, including adjusting for age based on 2000 census data.

"Attempting to adjust for age makes some sense since we know that COVID-19 fatalities overwhelmingly occurred in seniors," he said. "However, the CDC adjustment inexplicably is based on the 2000 census data, which, of course, could introduce a huge error, especially with respect to the share of the population which is Latino."

The "most remarkable" thing about the data is how little variation it presents based on ethnicity, especially in Texas, King added

"Certainly, the disparities are nothing to the extent of consensus media narrative," he added. "That narrative is largely based on a statistical restatement of the raw data which the CDC and some academicians have done, which they refer to as 'weighting.'"