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Economic uncertainty. A disappointing jobs report. Trouble at the border.
The first 100 days of the Biden administration have been highlighted by bad news for the United States, according to Texas Public Policy Foundation Chief Executive Officer Kevin Roberts.
However, Roberts and TPPF chief economist Vance Ginn and Ken Oliver, its senior director of engagement and right on immigration, said there are still many reasons to be hopeful. They shared their thoughts on where President Biden has gone wrong in their opinions, and what can be done to rectify his mistakes, during a 30-minute panel discussion Monday.
Kevin Roberts of the Texas Public Policy Foundation.
| Texas Public Policy Foundation
Oliver said he is comforted by the knowledge of who Americans are and what they believe in.
“I still know we have so many people with their head on straight in this country,” he said. “They did not vote for these policies, these policies that have destroyed our border security system, were not on the table really in the election, unfortunately, they're taking place and by a small minority pushing that, I think, to the detriment of the party in power, both in Congress and the White House. So I'm optimistic that as we begin to see polling shifting our way on this issue of border security and immigration, that the American people will have the final say.”
Public opinion polls put Biden's approval rate at nearly 53%.
Ginn said he also remains optimistic.
“I would say I believe strongly in the human spirit of America and their willingness to work, the dignity of work,” he said. “And even with all these challenges that may push back from these policies, that they're going to keep fighting back. And that's the beauty of our system of federalism, the laboratory of competition, where you have states like Texas who are going to be continuing to lead the way of these pro-growth initiatives that really do help families because they can come in and help out themselves."
Roberts said his research and reading have allowed him to take the long view. This too shall pass, he said.
“The human spirit always overcomes government overreach. Sometimes it gets ugly, hopefully doesn't get much uglier,” Roberts said. “As a historian, I'm optimistic about the future of America."
Still, the panelists admitted they believe Biden is taking America down a bad road. Ginn said the president has pushed for $6 trillion in new spending over the next decade. That is already creating inflation, which can be ruinous for the economy.
He also said continued spending on unemployment insurance is keeping people at home instead of having them return to their workplaces.
“This is where people just don't want to go back to work,” he said. “And that is an unfortunate situation.”
Ginn said the strings attached to the American Rescue Plan Act, which provides states with money but mandates they cannot use it to reduce taxes, is a matter of attacking state sovereignty.
“I think these are all issues that we need to discuss and really look at the failures, because what we hope to do is you always call us happy warriors here or find a good path forward,” he said. “We know it works. We know it's a pro-growth policy of deregulation, tax cuts and spending restraint that was under the Trump administration overall. We have the lowest poverty on record and the highest real household incomes that we've also had on record. That's what we need to get back to.”
Ginn said the jobs report released last week was expected to report a gain of 1 million jobs. Instead, the figure was just above 200,000.
“That's just a dreadful sort of jobs report," he said. "When you look at just the private sector alone, we're still 7 million jobs below where we were in February 2020. We lost 21 million jobs over those two months of March and April of last year. We've gained 14.4 million. A lot of those were during the Trump administration. And so what we see now is a slowdown in job creation at a time when we still have many people who are on the sidelines. And I think that is a product of the policies that have been put in place.”
Ginn said there has been a growing resistance to these policies.
“I think already we've seen a number of lawsuits against the American Rescue Plan Act,” he said. “There was a large amount that was sent out to states that was some quote unquote, flexible funding. And the indirect or direct tax relief is where a lot of states have started to push back.”
Ginn also pointed to problems with the “velocity” of money, or how quickly it changes hands. The Federal Reserve has increased the money supply by 300%, but the velocity of money has dropped by 80%.
Ginn said gas, lumber and housing prices are spiking.
“We are seeing inflation because too much money is chasing too few goods and a lot of the goods on the supply side are being held back,” he said.
Biden is targeting businesses with his tax plans, Ginn said, but businesses don't pay taxes — “they submit taxes. But we all pay for them through the form of higher prices, lower wages and fewer jobs available.
“So when I look at the economy, I see so much restraint on the supply side, not allowing for more production and economic growth and job creation," he added. "And I see a lot of movement on the demand side, handouts, stimulus checks and things of that nature. Unemployment benefits that are $300 a week, that's $15,000 a year. And here in Texas, you also add in the $500 a week you could get. You can make $40,000 a year just on unemployment insurance.”
He said several states are cutting unemployment payments to urge people to return to work as the COVID-19 pandemic fades.
Roberts said the money would be better spent elsewhere.
Oliver said Texas will receive $30 billion from the federal government, but most of it restricted on how it can be spent. Why not invest it in border security, he asked.
“Unfortunately, in the case of the border wall, most of the construction under the Trump administration took place in areas outside of the epicenter of our current crisis, which is Laredo and the Rio Grande Valley,” he said. “That's where we really need the construction to continue. The administration is finally beginning to fill some of those gaps, and it's really a vindication for the Trump administration policy.
“Our federal officers are overwhelmed taking care of minors. And there's so many people that also are getting away from our officers. In addition, the smugglers use that to get the drugs into the country.”
Oliver said Biden is reversing Trump policies on the border, which has taken a situation that was stabilizing and created havoc and danger for the United States.
He said 80% of asylum claims are found to be baseless.
“Up until just a few months ago, we were securing the border first, we were getting apprehensions way down,” he said. “The metrics which we are studying at the time we're looking at metrics of apprehensions ... the border wall was being constructed, which was preventing illegal immigration and drugs and all kinds of bad things coming across. We need to restore that agenda first."