Houston Daily

With just over three months remaining until the November 4 election, a new survey by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows that no candidate has taken a clear lead in the race for Texas’ 18th Congressional District. The contest was called following the death of U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner in March and is open to candidates from all parties.

According to the Hobby School’s poll, Democrats Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Council member, and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee each have support from 19% of likely voters. State Rep. Jolanda Jones, also a Democrat, and Republican realtor and journalist Carmen Maria Montiel each hold 14%. A significant portion—27%—of likely voters remain undecided.

“With such a tight split among the top candidates, the race may come down to which candidate is best able to turn out her or his supporters,” said Renée Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School and one of the principal investigators on the project.

If no candidate secures more than half of the vote on Election Day, a runoff will be held between the top two finishers.

Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, noted that many voters are still forming opinions about those running: “The top three Democratic candidates had overall fairly strong favorability ratings, but the number of voters who said they don’t know enough to have an opinion about even the best-known candidates remains high,” Jones said. “That presents an opportunity for the race to shift.”

Survey data shows that both Edwards and Menefee have net-favorability ratings of 30%, while Jones has a net-favorability rating of 11%. However, name recognition remains limited: 44% say they do not know enough about Edwards to form an opinion; this rises to 50% for Menefee and 35% for Jones. For Montiel—the only Republican included in this survey—78% are unfamiliar with her; she is viewed favorably by 11% and unfavorably by another 11%.

Other candidates received less support: independent George Foreman IV is backed by 4%, while Democrat Isaiah Martin holds support from 3%. Montiel receives strong backing from Republican-identified voters (62%), but none from Democrats. Among Democratic voters surveyed, Edwards and Menefee each receive support from 24%, with Jones close behind at 21%.

The full report can be found on the Hobby School website. The survey was conducted July 9–18 among Harris County registered voters in English and Spanish. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.90%.

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