Houston Daily

A new poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, finds that 57% of Harris County residents believe the county is headed in the wrong direction. I cannot recall a time when public sentiment about Harris County was this negative.

What’s striking is that no demographic subgroup expressed a positive outlook. Democrats were evenly split at 50/50, while 57% of Independents and 68% of Republicans viewed the county as on the wrong track. Younger residents and men were slightly more dissatisfied than other groups.

Crime remains the top concern, identified as the most serious issue by 20% of respondents. That figure, while still leading, marks a notable decline compared to recent years. The cost of housing and rising property taxes followed, tied at 13%.

Other frequently cited issues included street conditions (11%), flooding (9%), and traffic congestion (7%), which is historically low for that category. Economic and racial inequality registered at 10% and 4%, respectively. Homelessness was mentioned by 7%, and a lack of adequate public transportation by 6%.

What stands out is how broadly dissatisfaction is spread. There is only a 14-point gap between the most and least cited problems. No single issue dominates. Instead, residents appear discontented across a wide range of concerns.

The picture became somewhat clearer when respondents were asked to list their top three concerns. Crime was again the leading concern at 45%, followed by poor street conditions at 39%, and flooding at 37%. High housing costs (33%) and property taxes (32%) rounded out the top five.

Housing costs and property taxes are, of course, closely linked. Many renters who cite high housing costs may not realize that rising property taxes often lead to higher rents. If we combine the housing-related responses in both questions, they are well above any other issue.

Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo appears to be bearing the brunt of the public dissatisfaction. Her net approval is just 4%, remarkably low given that Democrats dominate the county’s partisan split. Other commissioners have significantly better approval ratings, though they remain relatively unknown to most voters. This is ironic, given that county judges have limited independent power. Most of the policies that have voters so cross are based on decisions made by the Commissioners. Hidalgo’s highly publicized meltdowns during Commissioners Court meetings and her controversial international travel requests are likely contributing to her declining support.

All of this sets the stage for an interesting 2026 election cycle, when Hidalgo, along with Commissioners Adrian Garcia and Lesley Briones, will be up for reelection. Republicans made inroads in 2024, winning ten countywide races, despite Trump losing the County by about 85,000 votes (52–46). That cycle was largely driven by voter anger over judges releasing violent offenders on little or no bond. While that issue may have subsided somewhat, there have still been high-profile cases over the past two years that will likely resurface in campaign ads.

This new poll suggests Republicans may have another potent issue: the steep property tax hikes enacted by the Democratic majority on the Commissioners' Court. If Republicans can effectively link high property taxes to the broader issue of housing affordability, they may have a powerful one-two punch.

With Governor Abbott likely entering his reelection campaign holding over $100 million in campaign funds, Republicans will have the resources to dominate the cycle. Still, Trump is the omnipresent wild card. If his favorability continues to erode, as it has since his reelection, it could prove a drag on down-ballot races. The outcome of the 2026 Harris County elections will likely turn on whether voters are principally concerned about local issues or what is happening in Washington.

Note: We will definitely have a segment on the 2026 elections at our Readers’ Conference on November 8. My Baker Institute colleague, Mark Jones, who conducted this poll, will join us for that discussion.

Bill King is the former mayor of Kemah, Texas. He served on Texas gubernatorial commissions studying the aftermath of both Hurricanes Rita and Ike. In 2006, he served on a task force appointed by the County Judges of Harris, Galveston and Brazoria Counties to revise the region’s evacuation plans in the wake of the disastrous Rita evacuation. In 2006, the National Hurricane Conference awarded him their Outstanding Achievement Award for his work in this area. In 2009, he was one of the founding directors of the Gulf Coast Community Protection and Recovery District, which initiated the process of attempting to build the Ike Dike.