Texas faces hurdles in reaching net-zero transportation emissions

The federal government is aiming for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, a target that demands significant changes across the United States. However, a recent white paper from the University of Houston suggests that Texas may face difficulties in reaching this goal within its transportation sector.

The state currently emits over 230 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually from transportation, with 80% originating from cars and trucks. The task ahead involves replacing more than 20 million vehicles over the next 25 years. Despite ambitious plans, Texas is expected to fall short of achieving carbon neutrality in transportation by 2050.

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) could create new jobs, but wages in the EV industry are reportedly lower than those in the traditional auto sector. Upskilling and reskilling workers will be essential for economic progress.

Achieving net-zero emissions will require substantial investment. Estimates indicate $30 billion to $50 billion in public funds are needed, alongside private sector contributions. Annual spending could range from $250 million to $640 million for Level 2 charging stations and up to $1.3 billion for DC fast charging stations by 2040.

There is also a concern about resource demands. By 2050, Texas' need for lithium and cobalt for EV production may exceed current global production levels, potentially leading to price increases due to a predicted demand surge of between 140% and 500%.

Additionally, transitioning away from internal combustion engine vehicles will lead to the closure of many gas stations, necessitating environmental remediation costs estimated between $2 billion and $5 billion.

Despite these challenges, opportunities exist as well. The shift could generate between 40,000 and 180,000 new jobs by mid-century and provide Texans with over $100 billion in public health benefits through reduced air pollution.

For more detailed insights into these projections and recommendations, refer to the white paper “Net Zero in Texas: The Role of Transportation,” co-authored by Aparajita Datta and Ramanan Krishnamoorti.