Houston Daily

With early voting set to begin on October 20, the race for Texas’ 18th Congressional District is likely to proceed to a runoff, according to a new survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. The survey, conducted from October 7-11 with 1,200 likely voters, shows Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee leading with 27% support, followed by former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards at 23%. Both are Democrats among a field of 16 candidates vying for the seat left vacant after the death of U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner in March.

Democratic state Rep. Jolanda Jones ranks third with 15% of the vote. The leading Republican candidate is businesswoman Carmen Maria Montiel, who has 6% support. No other candidate received more than 4%.

Early voting will begin on October 20, and Election Day is November 4. The special election is open to candidates from all parties.

Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said, “The sheer number of candidates for the seat, including three who are well-known to voters in this heavily Democratic district, makes it extremely unlikely anyone will receive more than 50% of the vote.” She added that Menefee and Edwards have led since entering the race, but Jones remains a close third. Cross also noted that most voters have favorable opinions of these three candidates, while a majority do not know enough about the other contenders to form an opinion.

Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, commented on possible runoff scenarios. He said the survey indicates a potential runoff between Menefee and Edwards would be closely contested, with voters split 36% for Menefee and 34% for Edwards. Another 20% were undecided, and 10% said they would not vote if those were the options.

Jones also noted that if Jolanda Jones advanced to a runoff against either Menefee or Edwards, both would hold significant leads over her. “We found that both Menefee and Edwards hold a significant lead. Menefee leads Jones 43% to 26% in a hypothetical runoff, while Edwards leads Jones 44% to 26%.”

The survey reflects slight changes since July, when a previous Hobby School poll showed Edwards and Menefee tied at 19%, with Jolanda Jones and Montiel each at 14%.

Other findings from the survey include independent candidate George Foreman IV and Democrat Isaiah Martin each receiving support from 4% of voters. No other candidate had more than 3%. Among Republican voters, Montiel led with 23%, followed by Carter Page at 10% and Ronald Whitfield at 2%. Black voters in the district are split among Menefee (30%), Edwards (25%), and Jolanda Jones (24%), with 10% unsure. Democratic voters favor Menefee at 35%, followed by Edwards at 28% and Jolanda Jones at 18%, with 11% undecided.

Civil rights and civil liberties were identified as the top concern by 44% of voters when asked about eight policy issues. Other priorities included jobs and the economy (13%), health care (12%), and inflation and prices (11%).

If federal judges uphold new district maps for the 2026 election, much of Congressional District 9 would be incorporated into District 18. U.S. Rep. Al Green, who currently represents District 9, received high favorability ratings—89%—from Democratic likely voters within District 18.

The full report can be found on the Hobby School website. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.