Houston Daily

Five months before the March 2026 Texas primary, a survey by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University shows incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in a close race for the Republican Senate nomination. The poll found 34% of likely Republican primary voters support Paxton, while 33% back Cornyn. U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt received support from 22%.

Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said, “Representing a Houston-area Congressional district since 2023, Wesley Hunt is not as well-known outside of Houston as Paxton and Cornyn, both of whom have run statewide races for years. Hunt has time to make up ground, but he’s at a disadvantage in what is shaping up to be a very expensive race.”

In the Republican primary for attorney general, U.S. Representative Chip Roy leads with 40%, followed by state Senator Joan Huffman at 12%, former U.S. assistant attorney general Aaron Reitz at 8%, and state Senator Mayes Middleton at 3%. However, 37% of Republican primary voters remain undecided.

The Democratic field for the Senate seat remains unsettled. Among declared candidates, former U.S. Representative Colin Allred leads state Representative James Talarico by four points (46% to 42%). Allred previously ran against Senator Ted Cruz in 2024.

If potential candidates Jasmine Crockett or Beto O’Rourke enter the race, polling suggests changes in voter preferences. Crockett currently leads an expanded field with support from 31% of Democratic primary voters; O’Rourke and Talarico each have 25%, while Allred has 13%. Neither Crockett nor O’Rourke has formally entered the race.

Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, commented on Crockett’s standing: “Jasmine Crockett has been very visible in opposing the Trump administration, through appearances on cable television and in hearings on Capitol Hill. Our findings suggest Democratic voters in Texas are supportive of that fight.”

The survey also reports that former President Donald Trump’s popularity among Texas voters may be declining. While 56% said they voted for him in 2024, only 49% would do so now—a decrease more pronounced among Latino voters (from 53% to 41%).

Michael O. Adams, director of TSU’s Executive Master of Public Administration program, noted: “Among Latinos and young voters, especially, support for the president has dropped. But he remains popular among Republican primary voters, and candidates in those primaries will be vying for his endorsement.” Half of Republican primary respondents said Trump’s endorsement would matter in their Senate vote; this figure rose to 56% regarding the attorney general’s race.

Other findings include:

- Forty-five percent of all registered voters view Trump favorably; among Republicans that figure rises to eighty-seven percent.

- Governor Greg Abbott and Senator Ted Cruz are also highly regarded by Republican voters (84% favorable).

- Support for Vice President Kamala Harris increased slightly since last year among surveyed Texans.

- Trump’s lead over Harris narrowed from thirteen points in November 2024 to four points by September 2025.

- Both Hunt and Talarico face challenges with name recognition across party lines.

The full report can be accessed on the Hobby School website. The survey polled 1,650 registered Texas voters between September 19 and October 1 in English and Spanish; it carries a margin of error of plus or minus two point four one percent.