Trump leads Texas poll ahead November election

A new survey of likely Texas voters has found former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by nine points in the state, 49% to 40%, with four months remaining until the November election. The survey, conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration program in the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University, indicates attitudes have remained unchanged since January when a similar survey also showed Trump leading Biden by the same margin.

Trump's support spans a broad spectrum of Texans, including a slight lead among Latino voters, who favor Trump over Biden 45% to 41%. Additionally, 5% of likely voters support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 2% back Green Party candidate Jill Stein; 4% remain undecided.

The U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat U.S. Rep. Colin Allred has tightened over the past five months, with Cruz now holding a three-point lead, 47% to 44%, down from a nine-point lead last winter.

The survey was conducted between June 20 and July 1—after Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts by a Manhattan jury—with about one-third of responses collected following the June 27 debate between Trump and Biden.

"Even after Trump’s conviction, and all of the concerns over Biden’s age, his poor debate performance and Kennedy’s high-profile entrance into the race, voters haven’t changed their minds about the candidates," said Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School. "Voters know these candidates, and little seems likely to sway their opinions."

This sentiment holds even though 51% of likely voters believe Trump is guilty of the crimes for which he was convicted. Another 35% believe he is not guilty, while 14% are unsure.

In fact, certainty remains high among supporters: 92% of Trump voters and 94% of Biden voters stated they are certain they won’t change their mind before the Nov. 5 election. Partisan identity is strong, with 92% of Republicans planning to vote for Trump and 86% of Democrats supporting Biden. Among Independents, Trump leads with 42%, compared to Biden's 18%; an additional 14% plan to vote for Kennedy, while 16% are undecided.

"Overall, we found Trump leading among most demographic groups in Texas," said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School. "The strongest support comes from men, white voters and older voters." Exceptions include Black voters who favor Biden by a margin of 57 points (73% to 16%) and Millennial voters who give Biden a smaller edge (46% to Trump's 40%).

White voters support Trump by more than twenty points (56% to Biden's 35%), while Latino voter preferences are closer (45% for Trump vs. Biden's 41%).

Among issues influencing voter decisions: immigration and border security top concerns for four out of ten Trump supporters but only concern four percent of Biden supporters. Conversely, twenty-seven percent of Biden supporters prioritize U.S democracy's future as opposed to four percent among Trump's base.

The Senate race has seen significant shifts as well; Allred has closed some gaps against Cruz since securing his party nomination in March primary elections.

“Earlier in the year...he was more unknown,” said Michael O. Adams from TSU's Executive Master program. “As a result...his name ID has increased.”

Libertarian Ted Brown garners three percent in that race; six percent remain undecided.

Other findings include:

- Fifty percent hold favorable views on Trump versus forty-nine percent unfavorable.

- Forty-four percent view Biden favorably compared with fifty-five percent unfavorably.

- Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed favorably by forty-two percent but unfavorably by fifty-six percent.

- Senator Cruz holds nearly equal favorable/unfavorable ratings (forty-nine vs forty-eight), whereas Allred sees forty-six favorable against thirty-one unfavorable; twenty-three remain unfamiliar enough for judgment.

Republican Christi Craddick leads her challengers within Texas Railroad Commission races capturing forty-one votes against Democratic contender Katherine Culbert’s thirty-five alongside Libertarian Hawk Dunlap/Green Party Eddie Espinoza tied at three each whilst eighteen stay uncertainly positioned yet pending further decisions ahead electoral periods arriving soonest thereafter upon concluding final stages amidst ongoing campaign activities currently underway statewide encompassing varied regional locales alike amongst respective constituencies therein inclusive throughout entirety involved altogether henceforth ultimately resulting accordingly therein upon subsequent forthcoming conclusions derived thereof pertaining thereto...

The full report is available on Hobby School website based upon data collection during June20-July1 period utilizing English-Spanish language formats encompassing participation via YouGov platform engaging respondents aged eighteen-plus yielding +/-2pt1 error margins overall plus/minus two-point-five within subpopulations comprising likely-voter categories specified therein future-focused analytical reports addressing school-choice/vouchers/housing/immigration/climate-challenges perspectives respectively anticipated accordingly forthcoming thusly...