Institute of Energy Research analyst: Green energy efforts in Texas could be futile if China's consumption isn't curtailed

Texas and all of the U.S. recently have focused on reducing use of nonrenewable energy sources, funneling billions of dollars' worth of subsidies into the renewable energy industry and generating concern from critics that the U.S.'s effort will be for naught if other nations don't follow suit. 

An Institute for Energy Research (IER) report detailed an increase in CO₂ emissions in China from 2005 to 2020, the largest increase of any nation included in the analysis. In 2020 alone, China emitted 23% more CO₂ than the combined output of the U.S. and all European nations.

On the other hand, IER noted a decline in CO₂ emissions in the U.S. and other countries since 2005. According to the research, the U.S. has led the world’s CO₂ emissions reduction efforts, decreasing nearly 25% from 2005 to 2020 to the tune of 1,423 million metric tons.

Institute of Energy Research senior fellow Dan Kish. | IER

China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined and will surpass the U.S. as the world's largest oil refiner this year for the first time in history, noted IER distinguished senior fellow Dan Kish. China also increased its coal plant capacity to more than three times the capacity of the rest of the world in 2020 alone. 

A March report by Fortune confirmed Kish's statistics, adding that China continues to burn more than 50% of the world's coal despite pledging to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. However, the nation also produces the majority of the world's steel; almost 60% of the metal is made in China, vastly overshadowing production in the U.S., United Kingdom and Europe. In order for the country to reach its carbon neutrality goals, the rest of the globe would be liable for filling in China's steel production gap. 

China has been increasing its production and consumption of energy created from non-renewable sources such as oil and coal in an effort to “enhanced national energy security," according to the IER.

As a result, clean energy measures in the U.S. can feel like one step forward and two steps back.

"It is clear that despite cheery talk about reducing emissions, [China is] using more affordable energy to expand their national economy and better the lives of their people," Kish told Houston Daily. "Unilateral energy and economic disarmament by the U.S. is a foolhardy and dangerous mistake."

Kish advised Texas to look out for its own citizens "rather than bowing to those hoping to get rich on more expensive energy." 

According to Bill Peacock of The Energy Alliance, the United States and Texas have funneled billions into the renewable energy industry, and that "taxpayers will be responsible for that bill."

A University of Texas study projected that Texas-only subsidies for oil and gas were $1.8 billion, $1 billion for wind and $19 million for solar, according to Texas Monthly. 

"China stopped subsidizing new wind and solar energy in August, with all of its hidden costs that Texans and Californians have discovered over the last year, and Europe is discovering right now," Kish said. "Adding to that, China dominates the world’s output of solar panels, wind turbine parts, batteries and all the minerals necessary to make them. It shows the current path is nothing but unnecessary cruelty to Americans."

The Lone Star Standard reported that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), state lawmakers and the Texas Public Utility Commission (PUC) agree that changes are necessary. PUC chairman Peter Lake said “Texans deserve a more reliable grid, and we’re aggressively moving to make that a reality.”

If there were ever an event to demonstrate the need for a reliable grid, it would be the February winter storm that slammed Texas in February, causing multiple blackouts and costing the state nearly $300 billion and the lives of more than 100 Texans. The PUC has been assigned the task of ensuring that the February blackout that hit the state doesn’t happen again, according to the Lone Star Standard. 

Texas Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian told Austin Journal that the state’s excessive reliance on renewables was the cause of the blackouts, noting that during the period "electricity generated from wind and solar decreased 52% while the electricity from natural gas increased 72%."

However, most analysts note that less than one-third of Texas' power needs comes from renewable sources. 

Energy sources that have proven to be unreliable came at a cost. Prior to the blackout, Texas companies spent nearly $70 billion on renewable energies. Wind and solar power generators received subsidies of around $27.1 billion from local, state and federal incentives, according to a report by Lone Star Standard. 

Brent Bennett, policy director for Life:Powered, told Houston Daily that if the renewable energy producers are going to be real contributors to the energy market in Texas, they need to be playing by the same rules as other producers and meet certain reliability thresholds.

“We think that a lot of [Gov. Greg Abbott's] directives are actually spot on, especially the second one where they're asking for wind and solar to basically confirm their requirements, basically saying they have to firm up some of their capacity if they're going to bid into the market,” Bennett said of Abbott's response to the grid crisis. "[Renewables] have to provide some level of guaranteed capacity, especially during times of peak demand.

"If they’re going to play in the market, they have to come closer to approaching the characteristics of the other generators in the market," Bennett added. "Otherwise, it's not a fair market. And you're basically giving them a free ride on providing the reliability services the grid needs.”

Regarding reliability, Bennett offered the viewpoint that Texas should "make sure the market is properly structured in order to incentivize reliable generation."

"It is tricky because you have to pay for all that," he said. "You have to pay for reliability. We’ve seen how expensive unreliability is.”