ERCOT says it is prepared for 'higher' summer electric load forecast

As June approaches, Texans are preparing for another broiling summer, and so is the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

ERCOT Communications Manager Leslie Sopko told Houston Daily it is ready for what is forecasted to be a record demand for power due to the expected hot and dry conditions, as well as steady population growth and increased economic activity.

“Our expected load forecast is higher than the previous record,” Sopko said.

Leslie Sopko | LinkedIn

The council projects a peak demand of 77,144 megawatts this summer. One MW powers about 200 homes on a hot summer day. The previous record for power use, 74,820 MW, was set  Aug. 12, 2019.

It can be an expensive problem. On Aug. 13, 2019, power prices started the day $19 per megawatt-hour, but exploded to the $9,000-per-hour cap as demand skyrocketed.

ERCOT projects having a 15.7% reserve margin this year and believes that will give it the cushion it needs to deal with high demand and prevent outages.

“The reserve margin is higher than the past few years,” Sopko said. “In 2018, the reserve margin for summer was 11%, in 2019 it was 8.6% and in 2020 it was 12.6%.”

She said there always will be a degree of uncertainty.

“While a higher reserve margin does reduce the risk of needing to declare emergency conditions, it does not eliminate that risk,” Sopko said. “A combination of factors during real-time operations can still result in the need to declare an energy emergency. The risk for emergency conditions remains low for summer 2021 based on many of the scenarios that we studied.”

Austin-based energy analyst Bill Peacock said it’s important to look beyond the raw numbers and determine the source of the power.

“ERCOT's projections show large reserves, but the majority of those are unreliable wind and solar generation,” he told Houston Daily. “So while the projections may be accurate, they overstate how reliable the system is.”

Peacock, the policy director of The Energy Alliance, said ERCOT has made choices that place Lone Star State residents at risk of extreme weather events.

“With the rapid growth of renewables in Texas, we are increasingly at the mercy of the weather to keep the lights on,” he said. “Last winter solar and wind both failed us and caused the Texas blackout. This summer, wind will likely be the culprit — if we lose power. With the intermittency of renewables, the size of the reserve margin is becoming almost meaningless.”

Analysts say renewable energy sources provide Texas with less than one-third of its power needs.

On May 6, ERCOT released its final seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) for the summer season (June–September), its preliminary assessment for the fall (October–November) and the May capacity demand and reserves (CDR) report. 

"The new scenarios reflect ERCOT’s commitment to improve transparency and visibility into the market and the factors that affect reliability, even when there is a very remote possibility of these events happening," said ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson in a release.

"While the risk for emergency conditions remains low this summer based on many of the scenarios studied, a combination of factors in real time, including record demand, high thermal generation outages and low wind/solar output could result in tight grid conditions," Rickerson said. "We cannot control the weather or forced generation outages, but we are prepared to deploy the tools that are available to us to maintain a reliable electric system. We hope this report helps market participants prepare to assist the grid if needed."

ERCOT and the Texas Reliability Entity have announced plans to tour some power plants to evaluate their summer weatherization plans. It’s a new step, modeled after previous inspections of plants to study their winter weatherization preparedness.

The energy council added more extreme scenarios in the summer plan to check how it would respond. It says there is a less than 1% chance of these problems actually taking place. That’s about the same as Winter Storm Uri, which blasted through the state from Feb. 13-17.

The council also is focusing on times of increased risk of low power production, including the evening, when solar production drops, or low-wind conditions. Efforts to increase battery storage are aimed to compensate for these times.

Drought conditions across the state also are being monitored, but ERCOT does not consider that a major risk this summer.

Sopko said plans are in place in case of an unanticipated event. But she said the term “blackout” has been incorrectly used.

“ERCOT has never had a blackout," she said. "We have instructed utilities to implement system-wide controlled outages four times in the history of ERCOT dating back to the 1970s, including the February winter storm. A combination of factors in real time, including record demand, high thermal generation outages and low wind/solar output could result in tight grid conditions. If this occurs ERCOT has tools and procedures in place to protect the reliability of the electric system.”

Peacock said he won’t play Chicken Little on blackouts, noting there are others far too willing to play that role.

“People who want more government usually are the ones to yell ‘The sky is falling’ over some imminent-but-not-quite-yet disaster," he said. "I'm not going to predict another disastrous blackout this summer. But I will say that if the lights do go down the fault will be 90% because of renewables. The other 10% will be some other form of excessive government manipulation of the Texas grid.”

ERCOT has an emergency conditions overview report when supply and demand cannot be balanced.

The outages that left 5 million Texans in the dark, many without heat, during the February winter storm has caused some to look askance at ERCOT. Sopko said the council is striving to keep everyone informed on various scenarios.

“ERCOT is identifying low-probability, high-impact situations similar to the February winter event in its seasonal assessments, to ensure all market participants and government officials have a comprehensive view into market conditions,” she said. “This will allow the market to more fully plan and prepare for even the most remote possibility.”

In the release, Rickerson said ERCOT is dedicated to being open about its process to ensure people are fully informed.

“These new scenarios reflect ERCOT’s commitment to improve transparency and visibility into the market and the factors that affect reliability, even when there is a very remote possibility of those events happening,” he said.

Peacock said others must strive to be as forthright.

“The credibility of ERCOT is not the issue," he said. "The issue is the credibility of members of the Texas Legislature and our statewide elected leaders who have for years pushed renewable energy on Texans. The winter blackouts exposed their folly — not to mention the billions of dollars in costs they have imposed on Texans. The question now is whether they will repent or continue to harm Texans.”